Short answer: On October 28, 2026, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4%. The vote was 10-2: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike. The statement called growth "strong" instead of "solid" and dropped earlier language about when a hike might help return inflation to 2%. Bitcoin spiked to about $81,700 after the announcement, dipped below $80,500 and settled near $81,000. Futures pricing now leans toward a hike in December.
What did the Fed decide and say?
The hold itself was expected; most traders had priced it in. The details were more hawkish. According to Bitcoin Magazine, it was the first time since 1992 that a governor and a regional bank president dissented together on the same side. The statement now says that more information will guide the policy stance, which removes any hint about timing. Chair Kevin Warsh said politics played no role in the decision, days before the November 3 midterm elections, and repeated that he does not favor forward guidance outside a crisis.
The backdrop is inflation running hot. US consumer prices rose faster than expected in mid-October, which pushed Bitcoin below $80,000 for the first time in weeks, as we covered in Bitcoin falls below $80,000 after hot CPI and PPI. The Fed already raised rates in September; see how crypto reacted to the September hike.
Key facts
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Decision | Hold at 3.75%-4%, October 28, 2026 |
| Vote | 10-2; Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted for a 25 bp hike |
| Statement | Growth "strong" (was "solid"); timing language on hikes removed |
| BTC reaction | Spike to ~$81,700, dip below $80,500, then ~$81,000 |
| Key support | $80,000 |
| ETF flows before | +$110M on October 26, +$176M on October 27 (spot BTC ETFs) |
| Market pricing | Futures and dot plot lean toward a hike by December; some pricing near 75% |
| BTC vs record | About a third below the October 2025 high near $126,000 |
Why does a Fed hold move Bitcoin?
Bitcoin trades as a risk asset that is sensitive to the cost of money. Higher rates raise the return on cash and Treasuries, strengthen the dollar and make leveraged positions more expensive. A hold with two votes for a hike tells markets that the next move is more likely up than down. That is why Bitcoin's first spike faded quickly: the decision itself was neutral, but the signal was hawkish. With 10-year yields near 5% in recent weeks, crypto has been trading closely with tech stocks and bond markets.
What it means for people who buy and swap crypto
- Expect volatility around macro data. The October jobs report on November 6 and the next inflation print can move prices more than crypto-specific news.
- Avoid high leverage into events. Fast swings around Fed days liquidate leveraged positions on both sides; see liquidations on the October jobs data.
- Lock the rate when it matters. If you are swapping during a volatile hour, a fixed-rate swap protects you from the price moving while your deposit confirms.
- Compare before you swap. Spreads widen in fast markets. Check offers across providers in Changerella App or the exchangers list.
FAQ
Did the Fed change rates in October 2026?
No. On October 28, 2026, the Fed held the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote. Two officials, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, voted for a quarter-point hike.
How did Bitcoin react to the Fed decision?
Bitcoin briefly rose to about $81,700, fell below $80,500 and then recovered toward $81,000. The move was muted because the hold was widely expected.
Will the Fed raise rates in December 2026?
Nothing is decided. After the October meeting, futures pricing and the Fed's projections leaned toward a hike by December, with some pricing near three in four.
Why do Fed decisions affect crypto prices?
Higher rates make cash and bonds more attractive, strengthen the dollar and raise the cost of leverage, which tends to weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin.